If you’re thinking about buying a smartphone, now’s the time to start shopping around. The technology research firm International Data Corporation has lowered its smartphone shipment growth forecast to 0.6% year-over-year because of economic challenges. One of the big reasons cited is the Trump Administration’s tariffs.
In February, IDC predicted 2.3% growth for the year but that was before Trump’s tariffs, which put extra charges on items imported from other countries, especially China. The IDC updated its worldwide quarterly mobile phone tracker on Thursday to show the shift.
What does that mean for smartphone availability and prices? Here’s what you need to know.
The US and China will lead smartphone growth despite trade war
Among all countries tracked globally, the US and China will drive the 0.6% growth, with China expected to have 3% year-over-year growth in smartphone shipment growth and the US expecting a 1.9% growth rate. That’s down from the previous projection caused by the ongoing US-China trade war, said Anthony Scarsella, research director for the IDC.
The growth decline doesn’t seem temporary. It’s expected to remain in the single digits for the foreseeable future. Yet, Nabila Popal, IDC senior research director, says the slowdown in 2025 is certainly short-term and won’t impact the market long term. Growth is expected to be higher in 2026 but will still be in the low single digits due to high penetration, increasing life cycle and the increasing popularity of used smartphones.
What the smartphone growth shift means for you
The big reason for the change is that consumers are buying fewer smartphones for a few economic reasons beyond tariffs.
«I don’t think anyone expected the mayhem of April 2, and the uncertainty that followed after, which is still ongoing,» said Popal. «But a lot of the market decline in 2025 is not just due to the tariffs but also economic challenges in emerging markets stemming from unemployment, inflation and FX volatility that is tightening the consumer wallet.»
Manufacturers are impacted, too. According to IDC, Apple sales could face a decline in China this year because of competition and not qualifying for government subsidies for iPhone models.
However, that could be offset by upcoming mobile product launches, like the iPhone 17, that could boost shipments and sales. For example, the base model of the iPhone 16 was the top-selling smartphone for the first quarter of 2025 globally. The iPhone 17 upgrades are expected to do fairly well, preventing the market from a deeper decline, Popal said.
While you cannot control growth protections and cellphone prices, it’s important to do what’s best for your wallet. If you’re in the market for a new phone and you’re worried about tariffs bumping up the price of the new iPhone or limiting availability, you may consider buying sooner rather than later if you already have the money saved for it. It’s also a good time to save more to account for price increases if you don’t plan on buying right away.
